Well, I had planned to offer some more analysis of past trends and other figments of data before the Tournament of Books actually got started, but I see that I have been overtaken by events. Shucks.
I think I will still try to do some analysis of judging trends in the second (and later) rounds before those start (I should have a few days), but I also just want to point out the negative reactions toward 2666 that you can read between the lines in the judge's decision and straight out in the "color commentary" from John Warner and Kevin Guilfoile. Everyone seems to think 2666 will roll to the Rooster, but I find it very unlikely that every judge will believe the ambition of the book redeems or justifies the length and brutality of "The Part about the Crimes." Someone is going to reject the book because of that, or because they are irritated by the hype. It may win, but I will be very surprised.
Here are all my posts of analysis on past Tournaments on one page.